Paul Broun is a lock to win a second term in Congress, according to a new poll.

The poll was commissioned by Broun’s campaign and has a rather high margin of error of 5 percent, so take it with a grain of salt. But it's not the Worst ... Poll ... in the Woooorld. It was done by the Tarrance Group, a very reputable firm that polled for Charlie Norwood, Jim Whitehead and Max Burns, and its results are, frankly, shocking.

The poll of 400 10th District residents, conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, shows Broun with 71 percent support, dominating GOP opponents Nancy Schaefer and Barry Fleming, who each polled 11 percent. Seven percent were undecided.

“I think we can pull away,” Broun said Tuesday at a press conference in Athens.

Among the highlights:

• Broun has 94 percent name recognition.

• 75 percent approve of his performance and 10 percent disapprove

• His favorable/unfavorable is 73 to 9.

• 65 percent think he deserves to be re-elected.

“At this time, it seems unlikely that Broun’s strength in the district can be overcome,” the pollsters said.

Campaigns usually don’t release their internal polling to reporters, but in this case, it’s such good news that I’m sure his staff was giddy about letting it leak out. It turns the conventional wisdom – Broun doesn’t stand a chance with Fleming running a smart, well-funded campaign and Schaefer chipping away at his base – on its head.

People tend to like their congressman, even if they hate Congress. What really shocked me was the name recognition – 94 percent is Michael Jordan territory – and the fact that only 7 percent were undecided a full four months before they go to the polls.

In most cases, even if you factor in the loaded questions campaign polls tend to ask to keep the boss happy, numbers like this would, as the Broun campaign contends, assure re-election. But this isn’t a typical race, and there’s a long way to go. Don’t break out the sparkling apple cider just yet, Broun fans.

Let’s do the math real quick.

We’ll assume 10 percent turnout in the Republican primary, which is about what it was in the 2006 GOP primary and a bit lower than the nonpartisan special election in 2007.

I figure Schaefer and Broun will split the vote in her Senate district, Broun gets three-quarters in Clarke and Oconee, Fleming gets three-quarters in his House district and they split the rest about evenly. You end up with something like Fleming 45, Broun 40, Schaefer 15. In other words, a runoff. Again.

I think Broun will do better in Augusta than he did last year. I also know Fleming hasn’t even started to spend that $500,000 he’s raised. So I still say it’s pretty much a crapshoot. But to paraphrase Wesley Snipes, I learned last year to always bet on Broun.

Blake.aued@onlineathens.com